Morning Softs 12/5/12

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lowr on speculative selling tied to end of the year liquidation. Most traders are noting that export demand has picked up in the last couple of weeks and could continue. There is talk of increased domestic demand, too. However, ideas were that there was little consumptive buying interest seen in the markets yesterday. Prices need to fall to attract the buying interest again. Traders look at the continuing US harvest and at world supplies and note that there should be no shortage of Cotton for any interested buyer. However, harvest should wrap up this week or next and farmer selling will become harder to find. Dry weather this week will help crops in northern India and Pakistan, while some precipitation in southern India will help crops there. Weather in the US remains favorable for rapid harvest progress in most areas, but the harvest is about over now. Trends are turning up on the charts.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average above to much above normal. Texas will get dry weather. Temperatures will average much above normal. The USDA spot price is now 68.65 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.076 million bales, from 0.060 million yesterday. ICE said that deliveries against December futures are 28 contracts and now total 491 contracts for the month.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 72.50, 71.65, and 71.30 March, with resistance of 73.55, 74.55, and 75.70 March.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed little higher in consolidation trading. Weather is the primary feature, with good weather reorted now, but with less certain longer term forecasts. Some of the long range forecasts call for below normal temperatures in Florida this Winter, and this has created some buying by speculators in recent sessions. Ideas still are that Florida crops look good right now, and weather in Brazil is reported to be good now as well. The next major weather event for Florida will be the freeze season which is coming soon. Florida weather has been generally good for production, with showers and moderate temperatures. Harvest of mid and early oranges has started. Demand for domestically produced Juice remains down from last year. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures and mostly dry conditions.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, although a few showers are possible in eastern areas. Temperatures will average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 120.50, 118.00, and 115.00 January, with resistance at 126.00, 130.00, and 139.00 January.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack – Dec 4
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FCOC)
WEEK ENDING: 11/24/2012
Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
1/24/2012 11/26/2011 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 214.58 164.74 30.3%
Retail/Institutional 7.06 8.54 -17.3%
Total 221.64 173.28 27.9%
Pack
Bulk 3.19 9.92 -67.8%
Retail/Institutional 1.05 0.24 336.0%
Total Pack 4.24 10.16 -58.2%
Reprocessed -2.11 -1.51 40.0%
Pack from Fruit 2.13 8.65 -75.4%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.01 0.07 -112.4%
Imports – Foreign 6.13 0.21 2826.6%
Domestic Rcpts of Non-FL Product 0.22 – NC
Receipts of FL Product from Non-Member – - NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.41 -99.2%
Reprocessed FCTJ – - NC
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 222.00 173.84 27.7%
Retail/Institutional 8.11 8.78 -7.6%
Total 230.12 182.62 26.0%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 3.54 4.02 -11.9%
Exports 1.19 1.07 12.0%
Total (Bulk) 4.74 5.09 -6.9%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.42 1.34 5.5%
Exports – - NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.42 1.34 5.5%
Total Movement 6.15 6.43 -4.3%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 217.27 168.75 28.7%
Retail/Institutional 6.70 7.44 -9.9%
Ending Inventory 223.97 176.19 27.1%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK To Date Season
Carry Over 11/24/2012 11/26/2011 % Change
Bulk Previous 246.18 206.05 19.5%
Retail/Institutional 7.95 8.52 -6.7%
Total 254.13 214.57 18.4%
Pack
Bulk 21.96 36.28 -39.5%
Retail/Institutional 13.71 14.94 -8.2%
Total Pack 35.67 51.21 -30.4%
Reprocessed -26.27 -30.38 -13.6%
Pack from Fruit 9.40 20.83 -54.9%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss Previous -0.13 -0.46 -71.8%
Imports – Foreign 32.29 12.35 161.6%
Domestic Receipts of Non-Florida Product 0.30 – NC
Receipts of FL Product from Non-Member 0.13 0.48 -73.0%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.02 0.52 -96.5%
Reprocessed FCTJ – 0.17 -100.0%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 274.48 225.01 22.0%
Retail/Institutional 21.66 23.46 -7.7%
Total 296.14 248.47 19.2%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 48.25 45.48 6.1%
Domestic 8.97 10.77 -16.8%
Exports 57.21 56.25 1.7%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional 14.96 16.02 -6.6%
Domestic – - NC
Exports 14.96 16.02 -6.6%
Total Movement 72.17 72.27 -0.1%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 217.27 168.75 28.7%
Retail/Institutional 6.70 7.44 -9.9%
Ending Inventory 223.97 176.19 27.1%

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lowr on selling from producers and speculators tied to chart patterns and increased offers from Central America. Wire reports noted that Guatemala exports were strong compared to last year, and also that the weath3er remains good in Brazil for flowering and crop development. Most traders and analysts remain bearish the market overall. Ideas that Brazil still has most of its production to sell and also ideas that Central America is at harvest and will sell quickly kept futures under pressure from the bears. Trends turned more neutral on the charts. Current crop development is good this year in Brazil and countries further north are at harvest. Central America crops are getting harvested or will get harvested soon. There are widespread reports of rust on the trees and leaves, and Roya has become a bit issue as well. It is possible that many Central America producers will harvest much less Coffee next year if they are affected by these problems. Mexico is reporting that the disease is now in Chiapas. Colombia is reported to have good conditions right now.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.504 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 131.39 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions, but a shower or two is possible. Temperatures will average above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 27 contracts were delivered against December futures today and that total deliveries are now 308 contracts. Guatemala exported 140,501 bags of Coffee in November, 34% more than last year. Marketing year to date exports are now 269,992 bags, up 33% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 147.00, 146.00, and 143.00 March, and resistance is at 154.00, 157.00, and 158.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1850, 1835, and 1800 January, and resistance is at 1895, 1925, and 1945 January. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 179.00 March. Support is at 184.00, 181.00, and 178.00 March, and resistance is at 192.00, 196.00, and 200.00 March.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower, with some producer selling noted and with no one talking about new demand. Ideas of weak demand and big supplies as the Asian harvest gets underway continue. Traders continue to expect big supplies for the current marketing year. Demand appears weak, and supplies appear to be available. Buying interest appears anytime the New York market tries to move below 1900 March, and it could be that the market is fighting for a low. However, chart patterns remain weak or are neutral at best. Traders are still bearish due to ideas of big supplies are around the world. Conditions look good for many production areas. Brazil should get drier weather, and overall crop development should be good in the center-south region. Traders are watching for more data on the potential for Indian production and also production in other Asian countries, but ides are that production will be less than last year. The harvest has been delayed in India due to the late monsoon. Southeast Asian Sugar areas are mostly in satisfactory condition, and production in most of the region is expected to be strong. The Thai crushing season is underway with good production expected.
Overnight News: Mostly dry weather is expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1945, 1905, and 1890 March, and resistance is at 1990, 2000, and 2050 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 518.00, 513.00, and 508.00 March, and resistance is at 527.00, 529.00, and 535.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower again on speculative selling tied to long liquidation after the breakout fromthe sideways pattern was not sustained. Good arrivals in Africa were negative. Supplies should be available to the market now as Western Africa is at harvest. Ivory Coast arrivals were strong this week. Ideas are that Ghana and Nigeria production will be less than last year due to the lower than expected arrivals so far this season. The West Africa harvest season is moving forward. Charts show that trends are sideways, but are trying to turn up. Malaysia has been seeing scattered showers and seems to be in better condition, and Indonesia is seeing beneficial rains. Overall weather patterns in West Africa production areas are good for harvest progress.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are sharply lower today at 3.803 million bags. ICE said that there were 0 deliveries posted against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 47 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2430, 2385, and 2355 March, with resistance at 2480, 2550, and 2600 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1540, 1515, and 1480 March, with resistance at 1610, 1625, and 1640 March.

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