Morning Grains 12/3/12

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 3
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL December Dec. 04, 2012 1616 Nov 30, 2012
CORN December Dec. 04, 2012 246 Sep 17, 2012
OATS December Dec. 04, 2012 332 Nov 30, 2012
WHEAT December Dec. 04, 2012 1939 Nov 30, 2012

DJ KCBT Wheat Delivery Intentions Breakdown – Dec 3
Intentions Reintentions
Intention Date: Dec 3, 2012 KC 0 0
Delivery Date: Dec 3, 2012 Hutchinson 127 0
Oldest long date: Nov 29, 2012 Salina/Abilene 7 0
Wichita 0 0
Totals 134 0

DJ MGEX Wheat Delivery Intentions Breakdown – Dec 3
Oldest long date 11/30/12. MGEX Clearing House Report on deliveries for
December 3, 2012. Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures.
Oldest Long Date For—Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures 11/29/12
Delivered MPLS/St Paul: 182
Delivered Duluth/Superior 147
Total Original Delivery:
Total RE-Delivery: 329

WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed lower on what appeared to be speculative selling tied to long liquidation before the end of the month. Funds and other speculators appeared to be the best sellers. Conditions for Winter Wheat crops in the US remain an issue as weather in the Great Plains remains very dry. Signs of new demand for US Wheat have been hard to find, but are expected to appear soon, perhaps just after the first of the year. Demand until now has not been strong on the export front with most users looking at other sellers first due to logistics, mostly due to shipping costs. Dry weather in the Great Plains is hurting crop establishment in the region. Overall conditions seem good in the Midwest. The lack of good conditions in the Great Plains does not mean that crop production will not be good next year, but it does mean that a good Winter and especially a good Spring will be needed for any kind of good production prospects. SRW prices remain at or below those in Europe. The production problems in Russia and eastern Europe and increasingly in Australia and Argentina imply that world stocks will get cut and demand for US Wheat could increase by the end of the year. Australian conditions are reported to be mostly OK in the east but too dry in the west. Yields and quality have been down in Australia so far this harvest. Russian prices are moving higher and now not competitive in world markets, and EU is now offering the cheapest Wheat into North Africa. Prices in the EU are moving higher. Demand will eventually come here and force US prices higher as well.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry conditions, but a few showers are possible on Friday. Temperatures should average above to much above normal, but will turn cooler on Friday. Northern areas could see dry weather until precipitation appears on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures should average above to much above normal through Wednesday, then will trend to enar to below normal by Friday. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions, but light snow is possible Saturday and Monday. Temperatures will average below normal. Egypt bought 400,000 tons of Wheat, including 280,000 tons from the US
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 858, 853, and 845 March, with resistance at 868, 871, and 880 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 906, 900, and 895 March, with resistance at 922, 928, and 940 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 926, 917, and 905 March, and resistance is at 946, 957, and 966 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 27, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
WHEAT – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 521,903
: Positions
: 58,832 200,823 143,940 26,349 21,887 106,054 62,831 61,977 22,680 31,715 61,766
: Changes from: November 20, 2012
: -24,525 -10,058 -335 -1,429 -27,545 5,793 -5,380 -16,638 -652 -571 -54,880
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 11.3 38.5 27.6 5.0 4.2 20.3 12.0 11.9 4.3 6.1 11.8
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 416
: 74 100 17 10 25 78 41 55 62 86 95
————————————————————————————————————–

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 27, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
WHEAT – KANSAS CITY BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 177,459
: Positions
: 30,700 105,493 40,481 3,458 5,350 46,355 6,137 16,485 8,324 9,254 7,307
: Changes from: November 20, 2012
: 3,665 3,079 770 434 524 -800 -287 1,873 -156 -64 -758
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 17.3 59.4 22.8 1.9 3.0 26.1 3.5 9.3 4.7 5.2 4.1
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 191 :
: 43 77 12 4 11 50 4 15 19 19 20

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 27, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
WHEAT – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 41,538
: Positions
: 17,174 29,650 2,519 68 459 6,601 0 171 3,461 1,629 1,122
: Changes from: November 20, 2012
: -1,007 -471 -18 -280 27 342 0 13 127 -43 -332
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 41.3 71.4 6.1 0.2 1.1 15.9 0.0 0.4 8.3 3.9 2.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 54
: 24 24 . . . 8 0 . 7 . 7
————————————————————————————————————–

RICE
General Comments: Prices closed higher on what appeared to be fund and other speculator short covering to end the month. Charts show that futures made a new short term leg up late last week and imply that prices should stay stronger this week. Prices in futures remain cheap to cash, and cash markets have been firm if there is much showing at all as there is very little on offer against some light demand. Demand, or at least export demand, has been great for Long Grain, but poor for Medium Grain. There is not a lot of cash Rice available right now as farmers are not looking at the markets and are doing other activities instead. Demand has been for Long Grain in recent reports as Latin America buys here again due to higher Brazil prices than those seen last year. Some prices in Brazil have been falling in the last couple of weeks, but are still relatively high. Medium Grain and Short Grain demand is expected to improve over the next few weeks.
Overnight News: Mostly dry in the Delta. Temperatures will average above normal. A major typhoon is moving into Philippines today with big rains and heavy winds, and evacuations have been ordered. The heaviest damage for now looks to be in Mindinao, and some production of Rice could be lost. The storm should hit sometime late today US time.

Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1535 and 1591 January. Support is at 1510, 1492, and 1480 January, with resistance at 1548, 1554, and 1575 January.

DJ Vietnam Nov 1-29 Rice Exports 621,616 Tons -Association
By Vu Trong Khanh
HANOI–Vietnam exported 621,616 metric tons of rice valued at $289.5 million
in the Nov. 1-29 period, the Vietnam Food Association said Monday.
Exports in the year to Nov. 29 totaled 7.1 million tons valued at $3.17
billion, the association said in a weekly report.
Minister of Industry and Trade Vu Huy Hoang said last month that 2012
exports are expected to reach 7.5 million-7.6 million tons, up from 7.11
million tons last year.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 27, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 14,993
: Positions
: 6,725 7,038 1,701 0 0 1,775 3,600 0 1,011 1,821 557
: Changes from: November 20, 2012
: -82 78 -2 0 0 69 0 0 72 0 16
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 44.9 46.9 11.3 0.0 0.0 11.8 24.0 0.0 6.7 12.1 3.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 72
: 21 14 6 0 0 7 14 0 14 4 7
————————————————————————————————————–

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower and Oats were about unchanged on what appeared to long liquidation by the funds and other speculators. US Corn is now competitive in world markets and is available unlike some European origins and increasingly origins from South America, where the weather has been a problem for farmers this year and offers are hard to find. Supplies of Corn remain tight here and around the world. Basis levels have been very strong as farmer are not offering much if anything at all. Some basis weakness has been noted in the last week in some interior river areas as there is talk that the Mississippi could close early this year due to low water levels. This could increase shipping costs to the Gulf and further depress basis levels in the Midwest. The weather is still improving in parts of South America. Current weather forecasts feature better rains in northern sections of Brazil, with the best amounts and coverage in the north and northeast. Southern Brazil should be dry. Argentine planting could be stalled again after some recent rains seen early in the weekend More rain is forecast for the first half of the week, but the last half of the week weekend should be dry. Argentina sources say it will be hard for the country to produce over 25 million tons of Corn this year due to the excessive rains in recent weeks, but the loss estimates will hold at current levels with the improved weather. So far the weather has not improved all that much there. Planting of Corn is expected to be very strong this month in Argentina. There are some expectations for less production in Brazil from weather problems as well. Farmers in the US are now more willing to store crops as futures prices have moved lower. Basis levels are mostly steady, but strong. Gulf basis levels are strong. Corn prices should stay very strong into next year as end users remain short on inventory, and users should be extending coverage into the first quarter of next year if not longer on price breaks.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 799 and 865 March. Support is at 746, 736, and 730 March, and resistance is at 759, 767, and 771 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 353 March. Support is at 370, 3767, and 363 March, and resistance is at 385, 386, and 391 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 27, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,541,817
: Positions
: 321,013 750,143 258,515 54,693 44,486 290,232 33,145 160,161 81,891 37,944 206,240
: Changes from: November 20, 2012
: -51,141 -32,951 2,266 549 -43,406 8,758 1,898 -64,364 -752 -2,169 -187,064
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 20.8 48.7 16.8 3.5 2.9 18.8 2.1 10.4 5.3 2.5 13.4
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 783
: 260 363 18 9 22 101 39 77 94 118 154
————————————————————————————————————–

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 27, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 11,052
: Positions
: 4,346 8,883 1,410 0 0 1,865 0 72 337 6 244
: Changes from: November 20, 2012
: -1,200 -917 6 0 0 45 -221 -54 -37 4 -327
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 39.3 80.4 12.8 0.0 0.0 16.9 0.0 0.7 3.0 0.0 2.2
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 39
: 12 11 4 0 0 10 0 . 8 . 8
————————————————————————————————————–

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 27, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
CBT ETHANOL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 29,000 U.S. GALLONS)
CFTC Code #025601 Open Interest is 10,761
: Positions
: 4,752 6,539 453 612 351 684 0 97 1,125 180 2,745
: Changes from: November 20, 2012
: -147 -815 206 14 -77 175 0 0 -983 -67 258
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 44.2 60.8 4.2 5.7 3.3 6.4 0.0 0.9 10.5 1.7 25.5
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 33
: 13 17 . . . . 0 . 4 . 5
————————————————————————————————————–

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 27, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
CHICAGO ETHANOL SWAP – NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 42,000 U.S. GALLONS)
CFTC Code #025651 Open Interest is 24,072
: Positions
: 20,880 18,374 13 1,313 414 982 55 260 630 2,518 653
: Changes from: November 20, 2012
: 920 728 -6 265 -37 0 -65 0 -65 -95 44
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 86.7 76.3 0.1 5.5 1.7 4.1 0.2 1.1 2.6 10.5 2.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 61
: 29 37 . . . . . . . 5 7
————————————————————————————————————–

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed lower as some long liquidation was seen at the end of the month. Ideas of weather problems in South America and more export business continue and could provide support again soon. Soybean Oil has been the big demand item, with some big export sales reported in the last week or so. Reports of improving planting conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina continue. Too much rain has hurt planting progress in those areas until recently, and continues to disrupt planting in Argentina. More rains were seen over the weekend and are possible again early this week. Forecasts for the week call for better rains in northern sections of Brazil, and crop development is called very good. Southern Brazil should be mostly dry. Argentine planting could be better this week as drier weather is forecast to return late in the week. Soybeans planting should be active in southern Brazil, and planted area could expand in some areas where it is getting late to plant Corn. Farmers in southern Brazil will want rain once the planting is done, but this region has turned very dry in the last few weeks. The Soybeans demand continues and there is still the threat that the US will sell all it has before too much longer, so the down side for prices could be limited. Basis levels remain strong due to the strong demand and also due to tight farmer holding patterns. Export basis levels are said by many to be historically strong this year, and held strong last week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1481 and 1535 January. Support is at 1428, 1403, and 1381 January, and resistance is at 1474, 1484, and 1490 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 430.00, 424.00, and 415.00 January, and resistance is at 440.00, 444.00, and 448.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4955, 4925, and 4865 January, with resistance at 4990, 5050, and 5075 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 27, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 843,320
: Positions
: 163,476 340,875 99,449 38,902 48,546 138,272 29,711 100,820 37,867 25,563 185,097
: Changes from: November 20, 2012
: -2,544 -12,132 -310 741 142 -984 3,243 -6,432 -721 4,694 -21,554
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 19.4 40.4 11.8 4.6 5.8 16.4 3.5 12.0 4.5 3.0 21.9
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 507
: 122 145 17 7 24 82 42 73 91 99 142
————————————————————————————————————–

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 27, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 100 TONS)
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 253,348
: Positions
: 73,384 139,319 18,398 2,812 5,085 43,290 19,575 24,263 12,011 3,937 28,029
: Changes from: November 20, 2012
: -3,110 -11,254 -3,742 147 -1,661 -1,033 2,779 -7,162 -444 52 -10,207
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 29.0 55.0 7.3 1.1 2.0 17.1 7.7 9.6 4.7 1.6 11.1
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 185
: 59 56 14 . 12 34 16 18 25 15 37
————————————————————————————————————–

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 27, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 60,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 370,218
: Positions
: 109,099 139,117 86,656 830 4,899 36,172 85,327 33,877 14,179 15,918 49,218
: Changes from: November 20, 2012
: -24,991 -20,274 349 14 -3,398 3,138 -1,128 -9,168 -866 -2,079 -22,627
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 29.5 37.6 23.4 0.2 1.3 9.8 23.0 9.2 3.8 4.3 13.3
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 265
: 64 58 17 . 14 22 56 37 20 48 62
————————————————————————————————————–

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation. Chart patterns are mixed in the short term. The cash market was called quiet there as farmers remain out of the market due to the recent price weakness. Futures traders talked about good comercial buying for export and domestic needs, but no new business has been confirmed. However, ideas are that new demand has been found for Canola in the export market. Palm Oil was lower in chart based trading. Ideas are that speculators were selling again in part due to talk of big supplies for next year. Demand has been stronger than expected over the last month or so, but traders are worried about demand from Europe longer term. China and India have been active buyers so far this month, and ideas are that they will continue to buy. Strong exports might continue through the end of the year as the duty free export quota expires at that time. Traders expect demand to hold strong as Palm Oil has favorable pricing for biodiesel producers, but still expect stocks to increase on strong production. However, Palm Oil production could continue to trend lower soon for seasonal reasons.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 601.00 and 619.00 January. Support is at 589.00, 586.00, and 581.00 January, with resistance at 599.00, 602.00, and 613.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2260, 2230, and 2200 February, with resistance at 2400, 2455, and 2480 February.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Nov 30
Winnipeg–The following are Canadian grain handling summary
statistics for the week ended November 25, 2012. Figures in thousands of
metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total
VISIBLE STOCKS
This week 3187.3 836.3 212.5 337.0 94.4 1001.0 186.6 154.0 6040.4
Week ago 3107.7 867.4 207.7 411.7 91.0 1034.3 165.2 119.9 6036.3
Year ago 3361.5 986.9 277.1 334.7 42.1 1359.0 242.8 101.1 6729.8
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This week 426.9 85.3 33.2 47.9 8.6 311.4 39.1 42.1 996.6
Week ago 350.2 101.8 28.7 68.2 11.8 264.2 21.3 40.8 889.3
To date 5982.6 1501.4 709.5 1025.2 111.1 5289.1 792.9 220.2 15706.7
Year ago 5616.8 1383.9 843.3 996.7 85.0 5160.7 867.0 136.0 15154.5
EXPORTS
This week 221.3 81.6 10.8 95.7 2.9 219.6 10.0 5.2 648.5
Week ago 258.5 99.3 30.5 59.5 1.8 107.1 14.8 2.2 577.3
To date 4066.6 1583.9 447.4 589.2 48.7 2752.0 689.8 12.9 10231.5
Year ago 4349.6 1203.7 509.3 415.8 88.3 2807.5 816.1 0.1 10254.1
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This week 137.4 42.3 12.9 30.1 1.0 140.6 0.3 8.9 374.6
Week ago 102.1 47.3 10.0 32.8 3.9 105.2 0.2 5.7 307.3
To date 1734.1 592.1 230.9 421.5 19.0 2398.0 8.9 130.7 5550.0
Year ago 1488.9 200.9 203.6 557.9 7.8 1966.6 23.1 125.2 4580.4
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca or 204-414-9084)

DJ Canadian Oilseed Processors Association Weekly Crush – Nov 30
Winnipeg–Canadian Oilseed Processors Association
reported the Canadian oilseed crush for the week ended
November 28, 2012, as follows:
Figures are in metric tons. R-denotes revision.
Week ended Cumulative Cumulative
2012/13 2011/12 2012/13 2011/12
Canola (Aug/Jul) Sybns (Aug/Jul)
Nov 28 124,809 2,337,847 2,066,022 46,241 503,336 435,090
Nov 21 137,901 2,213,038 1,932,851 34,174 457,095 409,691
Nov 14 154,077 2,075,137 1,800,746 31,548 422,921 381,366
Nov 07 147,358 1,921,060 1,669,774 31,079 391,373 354,709
Oct 31 149,140 1,773,702 1,554,004 27,469 360,294 325,367
Crush Capacity Utilization
This Week Year-to-Date Year Ago
Canola 75.1% 88.5% 88.7%
Soybeans 70.3% 48.2% 61.2%
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca or
204-414-9084)

DAIRY
General Comments: Dairy markets were lower on what appeared to be speculative selling. The CME auction showed some demand for Butter and great demand for Cheese. Milk had no interest. Chart patterns remain generally weak for the short term in nearby months, but more neutral for deferred months. Whey charts show potential for rallies. There are ideas that the longer term rally could resume after the first of the year due to strong Asian demand. US and EU prices continue to show premiums to other origins. Demand still seems to be good, especially for Cheese, and this demand has held the market at current higher levels. US and EU prices remain above those in Australia and New Zealand to the point where Asian buyers can get cheaper products locally. However, most of te production in New Zealand and Australia is made into powder products and not Cheese, so the US and Europe can keep a competitive edge even with the higher prices. The powders are also popular in that part of the world as well, so it looks like the market can keep this division going into the coming year. It is turning cool in the US Midwest and that could hurt production here a little bit. However, weather is said to be good in New Zealand and Australia.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Milk are mixed. Support is at 1850, 1840, and 1830 January, and resistance is at 1905, 1920, and 1925 January. Trends in Cheese are mixed. Support is at 181.50, 180.00, and 174.50 January, with resistance at 185.00, 187.00, and 188.50 January. Trends in Butter are down with objectives of 160.00 January. Support is at 163.50, 162.50, and 160.00 January, and resistance is at 165.00, 168.00, and 169.00 January. Trends in Whey are mixed. Support is at 6000, 5850, and 5725 January, with resistance at 6150, 6250 and 6300 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 27, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
MILK, Class III – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #052641 Open Interest is 44,003
: Positions
: 21,482 20,628 52 1,898 191 2,453 0 123 2,367 3,400 10,331
: Changes from: November 20, 2012
: 475 -131 -20 -30 60 -96 0 30 155 453 312
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 48.8 46.9 0.1 4.3 0.4 5.6 0.0 0.3 5.4 7.7 23.5
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 76
: 34 30 . . . 5 0 . 14 15 23
————————————————————————————————————–

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 27, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
CHEESE (CASH-SETTLED) – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 20,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #063642 Open Interest is 6,754
: Positions
: 4,777 3,771 0 0 0 43 0 0 71 1,577 1,188
: Changes from: November 20, 2012
: 174 96 0 0 0 11 0 0 20 101 160
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 70.7 55.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 23.3 17.6
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 33
: 15 12 0 0 0 . 0 0 . 10 11
————————————————————————————————————–

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 27, 2012
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
BUTTER (CASH SETTLED) – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 20,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #050642 Open Interest is 3,330
: Positions
: 2,265 2,818 239 0 0 0 0 0 49 2 110
: Changes from: November 20, 2012
: 148 146 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 -5 -9
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 68.0 84.6 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.1 3.3
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 20
: 15 12 . 0 0 0 0 0 . . .
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Daily Cash Nonfat Dry Milk Trading on Friday, November 30, 2012
(Carload Unit = 42,000-45,000 lbs)
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NONFAT DRY MILK : CLOSE : CHANGE
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EXTRA GRADE : $1.5600 : N.C.
GRADE A : $1.5575 : N.C.
——————————————————————
SALES: NONE
LAST BID UNFILLED: NONE
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1140C (608) 278-4200

Daily Cash Cheese Trading on Friday, November 30, 2012
(Carload Unit = 40,000-44,000 lbs.)
——————————————————————
CHEESE : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
BARRELS : $1.7125 : -.0275
40# BLOCKS : $1.7600 : -.0650
——————————————————————
SALES: 1 CAR BARRELS @ $1.7125
6 CARS 40# BLOCKS:
1 @ $1.8200, 1 @ $1.8000, 1 @ $1.7900, 1 @ $1.7700,
2 @ $1.7600
LAST BID UNFILLED: 1 CAR BARRELS @ $1.7050
1 CAR 40# BLOCKS @ $1.7400
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 1 CAR 40# BLOCKS @ $1.7600
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1141C (608) 278-4200

Daily Cash Butter Trading on Friday, November 30, 2012
(Carload Unit = 40,000-42,000 lbs)
——————————————————————
BUTTER : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
GRADE AA : $1.6000 : -.0125
——————————————————————
SALES: 2 CARS GRADE AA @ $1.6000
LAST BID UNFILLED: NONE
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 1 CAR GRADE AA @ $1.6075
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1140C (608) 278-4200

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week, but some showers are possible over the middle of the week. Temperatures should average above to much above normal early this week and near to above normal late in the week.

FOB Gulf of Mexico of Mexico Basis Levels:
FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November No Bid 114 December 90 December 110 January 58 December 200 January
December 82 December 116 December 85 December 110 January
January 84 March 72 March 106 January
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.